October WTI crude oil (CLV25) today is down -0.33 (-0.51%), and October RBOB gasoline (RBV25) is down -0.0122 (-0.62%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure today, with gasoline falling to a 1-week low.  Global crude supply concerns have eased and are weighing on prices after Russia announced that its Volgograd refinery, which can process 300,000 bpd of crude oil, will resume operations a week earlier than planned, as repairs to the refinery were made following drone attacks by Ukraine.  Today's weaker dollar is limiting losses in crude.

Weakness in the crude crack spread is also weighing on oil prices.  The crack spread fell to a 2.5-month low today, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil and refining it into gasoline and distillates.  

An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +11% w/w to 96.77 million bbl in the week ended August 22.

Concerns about higher OPEC production are negative for crude prices after OPEC+ on August 2 endorsed an additional 547,000 bpd increase in its crude production for September 1.  OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026.  OPEC+ has 1.66 million bpd of supplies that are currently due to remain offline until late 2026.  OPEC+ will meet again on September 7.  OPEC July crude production fell by -20,000 bpd to 28.31 million bpd.

Crude prices have support on concerns that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue, which could keep restrictions on Russian crude exports in place, and even secondary restrictions could be added.  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated on Sunday that no meeting is planned between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, as "there needs to be an agenda first" for a meeting to take place.  "This agenda is not ready at all."  

Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 22 were -5.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.8% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending August 22 rose by +0.4% w/w to 13.439 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending August 22 fell by -1 to 411 rigs, just above the 3.75-year low of 410 rigs from August 1.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.