AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Back Lower

November 20, 2019

Corn Futures are reverting back to lower prices, despite the EIA ethanol statistics. Futures are 3 1/2 to 4 cents lower at midday. The latest update from the EIA suggested more of the same good news from last week. For the week ending 11/15 the daily production per day was up 3,000 barrels over last week, at 1.033 million barrels. The bullish take-away was that for the second consecutive week production was higher and stocks were lower, insinuating demand increases. The stocks were 471 barrels lower over the last week. South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of corn privately from Glencore, with optional origin and a December shipment. India issued a tender for up to 100,000 MT of corn, sources believe Ukraine will fill. The CN rail strike contributes uncertainty about grain movement in parts of the upper Midwest.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.66, down 4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.77, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.83 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.89, down 3 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Steady Holding for Beans

November 20, 2019

Soybean futures are firm so far, with most nearbys seeing fractional gains at midday. Soybean meal is down 60 cents/ton at midday. Bean oil is up by 38 points so far. Traders are expecting 800,000 -1.4 million MT of soybean export sales in tomorrow’s report. Soymeal export sales are expected to range from 100-45,000 MT, and bean oil is anticipated to show 5,000-25,000 MT. US Soybean FOB prices were reported to be between Brazil and Argentina, @$359.00/MT (~$9.77/bushel).

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.11 1/2, unch,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $9.24 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.37, up 1/4 cent,

JUL 20 Soybeans are at $9.48 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $301.40, down $0.60,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.34, up $0.38

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Futures Mixed at Midday

November 20, 2019

Wheat futures are steadily mixed to higher for Wednesday’s session. Chicago SRW wheat is seeing some midday gains as high as 3 cents in nearby contracts. KC wheat futures are fractionally higher so far, while MPLS HRS wheat is seeing fractional losses in nearby contracts. MPLS wheat future losses do get larger through the front months, as low as 2 1/4 cents. Traders are expecting wheat to show 200-500,000 MT of export sales for the week ending 11/14. Last week was 238,620 MT and last year saw 330,394 MT. Australia (ABARE) is estimating wheat production to be a 10-year low at 16.7 MMT, citing drought conditions as the culprit. Jordan purchased 60,000 MT of hard wheat with an optional origin. Syria purchased 150,000 MT of Russian wheat. Japan has tendered for 119,998 MT of wheat.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.14 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.25 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.02 3/4, down 1/2 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday Cattle Futures Higher

November 20, 2019

Live cattle futures are higher at midday, with gains as much as 47 cents so far. Feeder cattle futures are 30 to 35 cents higher at midday; the Nov futures expire tomorrow. The 11/18 CME Feeder Cattle index was lower by 15 cents to $146.54. Analysts expect on average for October placements to be above last year’s high of 11.700 million head. The average estimate is a 12.2% increase in yr/yr October placements. Wednesday boxed beef prices were back up slightly. Choice boxes regained 61 cents and select boxes were back up by 73 cents. Cash cattle traded at $116 in KS and TX. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction had good action, with 1,229 of the 1,398 head sold. TX feedlots passed on offers of 114, KS feedlots accepted 114 offers and NE feedlots were given full ask price of $115-$116. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter is up to 236,000 head through Tuesday, that’s 6,000 head below the same time last year.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $119.250, up $0.475,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $125.450, up $0.400,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.425, up $0.250,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.900, up $0.300

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.375, up $0.350

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.475, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

More Decreases for Hog Futures

November 20, 2019

Wednesday hog futures are down again, falling another triple digits after a short-lived recovery effort on Tuesday. The cash market is going the other way. The 11/18 CME Lean Hog Index recovered 5 cents to $59.29. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value from the USDA was up by $2.93 to $87.60. The Ham primal is back up today, gaining $9.90. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/20 was 30 cents higher to $42.63. Yesterday’s FI estimated hog slaughter was a daily record of 494,000 head. Following Monday’s near record daily slaughter, the weekly pace could be a record setting weekly slaughter, currently at 987,000 head through Tuesday.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $61.000, down $1.150,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $67.325, down $2.300

APR 20 Hogs are at $73.725, down $2.025

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Rebounding so far

November 20, 2019

Cotton futures recover 32 to 43 points at midday. The dollar index is firmer this morning, with the US stock market a touch weaker. The cotton Ginners Association reported output for The Ivory Coast to be 510,000 MT (~2.343 mil bales), up 8.97% yr/yr to a new record for the African Nation. Using WASDE numbers, that would give them a 1.892% share of world production. The 11/19 Cotlook A Index was down 50 points to 75.00 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton will be updated tomorrow afternoon, the current AWP is 57.06 cents/lb.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.76, up 32 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.78, up 43 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 67.01, up 39 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 68.06, up 39 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com